Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 105.111268 120.027988 136.780408 157.078281 181.125629 208.852390 243.451774
2026-01-11 86.495719 105.874144 129.567025 161.002289 202.120643 254.787379 328.515576
2026-01-18 74.290260 95.625332 123.389154 162.837527 218.560569 296.204522 415.782836
2026-01-25 65.197749 87.281925 117.469656 162.795740 231.008422 333.065079 503.863405
2026-02-01 57.391504 79.288906 110.436295 159.375789 237.043004 360.545317 582.900588
2026-02-08 51.149404 72.575323 104.104588 155.630098 241.310958 385.200444 662.215057
2026-02-15 46.147788 67.023964 98.676138 152.246704 245.169598 409.251129 745.659252
2026-02-22 44.592468 66.463061 100.748030 161.118983 271.033386 476.822418 931.667423
2026-03-01 41.810102 63.640503 98.808964 162.799281 284.136300 522.960239 1086.653199
2026-03-08 39.468180 61.266400 97.293499 164.915934 298.244092 573.787461 1268.146120
2026-03-15 37.005224 58.441590 94.680051 164.609916 307.426634 616.052054 1442.824415
2026-03-22 36.198430 58.325349 96.732696 173.313914 336.438454 708.589392 1784.232749
2026-03-29 35.049788 57.573992 97.682521 180.255177 363.628100 805.457603 2186.757647
2026-04-05 33.767075 56.466730 97.860965 185.684784 388.623989 904.185419 2646.827739
2026-04-12 32.220389 54.734040 96.662045 188.041043 406.911326 990.634846 3113.972315
2026-04-19 30.551038 52.625789 94.512922 188.029585 419.427609 1064.778218 3580.268849
2026-04-26 28.609592 49.846418 90.767982 183.969638 420.943393 1107.331228 3947.443241
2026-05-03 26.808117 47.199610 87.053426 179.519236 420.679262 1144.665973 4318.028002
2026-05-10 25.211052 44.832061 83.702104 175.501394 420.884901 1183.805709 4725.330645
2026-05-17 25.064756 45.306480 86.309671 186.045155 463.874004 1380.745416 6085.551792
2026-05-24 24.173274 44.215809 85.479329 188.044429 482.643477 1499.604351 7140.269320
2026-05-31 23.384168 43.274097 84.884707 190.563947 503.592514 1634.859591 8441.047935
2026-06-07 22.427538 41.917879 83.254382 190.199612 515.549083 1739.712188 9664.872224